Match Analysis: Su Mudaerji vs Mitch Raposo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: April 12, 2025
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, USA
Game Overview
Su Mudaerji and Mitch Raposo face off in a crucial flyweight bout at UFC 314. Mudaerji seeks to end a three-fight losing streak, while Raposo seeks redemption after his UFC debut loss. Both fighters are motivated but come with different strategies.
Key Factors to Consider
- Su Mudaerji has a more extensive UFC experience but has struggled against higher-level opponents. Mitch Raposo has shown growth in his recent regional wins but faces a challenge adapting to UFC competition.
- No prior matches between the two fighters. The bout is expected to test Raposo's new striking approach against Mudaerji's size and reach.
- No reported significant injuries for either fighter.
- Fight dynamics could be influenced by the crowd and environment at the Kaseya Center.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to achieve a win; Mudaerji needs to halt his losing streak, and Raposo aims to prove himself in the UFC.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Su Mudaerji -175, Mitch Raposo +150 | Su Mudaerji to win, but low confidence due to Raposo's potential upside. | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over_under | Over 2.5 -155, Under 2.5 +125 | Fight not going the distance (Under 2.5) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Su Mudaerji -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 35% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mudaerji is marginally favored due to his UFC experience, but the prediction leans towards this fight not going the distance due to both fighters' desperation.
Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA fights.