Match Analysis: Nicolas Dalby vs Randy Brown – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-27
- Time: 1:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Kansas City (assumed based on context)
Game Overview
Welterweight main card matchup between Randy Brown (19-6-0) and Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1). Brown holds physical advantages in height (6'3" vs 5'11"), reach (78" vs 74"), and striking accuracy (47% vs 43%). Dalby has superior average fight duration (13:39 vs 10:41) and recent momentum with 3 consecutive wins.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brown's 4.35 SLpM and 54% striking defense vs Dalby's durability (13:39 avg fight time). Brown's 0.6 submission attempts/15min vs Dalby's 0.1.
- First professional meeting between fighters
- No reported injuries from available data
- 4" reach advantage for Brown critical in striking exchanges
- Dalby (40) potentially facing later-career matchup importance vs Brown's (34) prime physical condition
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dalby +215/Brown -265 | Randy Brown moneyline | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Dalby +3.5 (-135)/Brown -3.5 (+100) | Brown -3.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-298)/Under 2.5 (+220) | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Randy Brown -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Randy Brown by decision (60% confidence) due to technical striking advantage and reach management
Predicted Score: Randy Brown via Unanimous Decision (29-28)