Match Analysis: New England Revolution vs New York City FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-19
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, USA
Game Overview
The upcoming MLS match features New England Revolution hosting New York City FC at Gillette Stadium. Both teams have shown mixed form this season with New England Revolution currently 12th in the Eastern Conference and New York City FC 10th. The Revs have momentum from recent wins, including a 1-0 away victory over Atlanta United FC and a 2-1 home win against New York Red Bulls. NYCFC is coming off a 1-0 home win against Philadelphia Union but have struggled on the road with no wins in their last four away games this campaign.
Key Factors to Consider
- New England Revolution recently won two of their last three matches, showing improved defense and effective attack led by Carles Gil. NYCFC, while having a solid record at home, have been inconsistent with a recent 1-0 win snapping a three-game winless streak but remain winless away this season. Both defenses are relatively strong, with New England conceding only 3 goals in their first 3 games but New England's scoring remains modest.
- Historically balanced rivalry with 29 meetings since 2015: New England Revolution won 10, NYCFC 11, and 8 draws. In the last five matches, both teams have won three games each with no draws. The last two meetings this season went to NYCFC, including a 2-1 victory at Yankee Stadium on March 15, 2025, and a 1-0 away win at Gillette Stadium last year. New England holds a more favorable home record against NYCFC (6-3-5), though recent matches have tilted in NYCFC's favor.
- Current injury updates suggest some key absences for New England Revolution including Campana expected out for 3-4 weeks with a hamstring strain. No major injury news reported for NYCFC, which may provide them a fitness edge.
- Weather is predicted to be mostly cloudy with temperatures ranging from 55°F to 80°F, typical comfortable conditions for soccer. The game will be played at Gillette Stadium, which favors the home side in terms of familiarity and fan support. Additionally, the club’s support for the New England Amputee Soccer Association adds a morale boost to the home team environment.
- New England Revolution will aim to capitalize on their recent good form to strengthen their position in the Eastern Conference and uphold home advantage. NYCFC looks to rebound from mixed early-season results and improve their poor away record. Both teams have incentive to climb the standings, making the match highly competitive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New England Revolution: 145, New York City FC: 180, Draw: 250 | New England Revolution win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | New England Revolution: -122, New York City FC: 102 | New England Revolution 0 spread (win or draw) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -122, Under 2.5: 102 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New England Revolution 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 41% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 41% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A tight and competitive game is expected. Given New England’s recent home form and momentum but NYCFC’s historical edge and strong home performances, the match is likely to be close. A narrow New England Revolution win or a draw are the most probable outcomes, with under 2.5 goals likely given both teams' defensive strength and modest scoring.
Predicted Score: New England Revolution 1 – 0 New York City FC