Match Analysis: Abusupyian Magomedov vs Michel Pereira – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-27
- Time: 1:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Event (specific venue not listed in sources)
Game Overview
Middleweight clash between Abus Magomedov (27-6-1) and Michel Pereira (31-12-0) in a UFC main card bout. Pereira is ranked No.14, while Magomedov enters with a 2-fight win streak. Pereira holds a 35% finish rate (11 KOs, 9 subs), while Magomedov's precise finish stats are unavailable but carries a 78-inch reach advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Magomedov: 2-fight win streak, Pereira: Most recent win vs. Potieria in May 2024[4]. Pereira lost via TKO in October 2024[4].
- First professional meeting
- No reported injuries in available data
- Magomedov's 4-year age advantage (34 vs. 30, though sources contradict about Pereira's age – actual appears closer to 31 from records)
- Pereira seeks rankings climb; Magomedov aims to rebound from Strickland loss (mentioned in ESPN context but dated)
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Magomedov +120, Pereira -142 | Pereira moneyline | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Magomedov +3.5 (-140), Pereira -3.5 (+100) | Pereira to cover -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 (-200), Under 1.5 (+154) | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michel Pereira 25% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Michel Pereira at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pereira by decision (55% confidence) due to superior activity and rankings position, though Magomedov's reach could dictate pace.
Predicted Score: Pereira via unanimous decision (29-28 x3)