Match Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-03-09
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena
Game Overview
Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev are set to clash at UFC 313 in a highly anticipated lightweight bout. Gaethje is looking to bounce back from a significant loss to Max Holloway, while Fiziev steps in on short notice after a long injury layoff.
Key Factors to Consider
- Justin Gaethje is known for his aggressive style and ability to deliver exciting fights. Rafael Fiziev, though coming off an injury, has shown resilience and skill in his previous bouts. Gaethje's recent performance against Holloway raises questions about his current form.
- The two fighters have met before at UFC 286, where Gaethje won by majority decision. This rematch offers Fiziev a chance to avenge his loss.
- Rafael Fiziev is returning from a significant knee injury, which might affect his performance. Justin Gaethje is coming off a brutal KO loss, which could impact his confidence and physical condition.
- The short notice for Fiziev might impact his preparation, while Gaethje had a full camp initially planned for Dan Hooker.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, with Gaethje seeking to regain title contention and Fiziev looking to capitalize on a surprise rematch opportunity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Justin Gaethje: +140, Rafael Fiziev: -166 | Rafael Fiziev | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Justin Gaethje: +3.5 -140, Rafael Fiziev: -3.5 100 | Justin Gaethje +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over_under | Over 2.5: -130, Under 2.5: 100 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Predicted Outcome
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev is expected to be a closely contested fight, but Fiziev's odds suggest he is favored.
Predicted Score: Rafael Fiziev wins by decision or late stoppage.