Match Analysis: Gauge Young vs Evan Elder – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 12:25 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City
Game Overview
Lightweight bout between Evan 'The Phenom' Elder (9-2-0) and Gauge 'Gee Money' Young (9-2-0) at UFC Kansas City. Elder holds physical advantages in height (5'10" vs 5'9"), reach (72" vs 70"), and striking defense (57% vs 44%). Young possesses superior striking accuracy (56% to 49%) but absorbs more strikes (5.40/min vs 4.79/min). Elder's grappling edge includes takedown attempts (0.63/15min) and submission threat (0.6/15min).
Key Factors to Consider
- Elder: 2 recent wins (Flowers, Valdez). Young's last fight was a loss (Salkilld). Elder's 11:51 avg fight time suggests early engagement vs Young's 15:00 full-round stamina.
- No prior match history between fighters.
- No injury data available from current sources.
- Young's orthodox stance vs Elder's switch stance creates tactical variance. Venue elevation (Kansas City ~910ft) minimal impact.
- Elder seeks third consecutive UFC win. Young aims to rebound from recent loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elder -193 / Young +168 | Elder Moneyline | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-240) / Under 2.5 (+190) | Over 2.5 Rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Evan Elder 68% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Evan Elder at 68% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Elder by decision (60% confidence) – superior defensive metrics and volume striking likely outweigh Young's accuracy advantage.
Predicted Score: Elder by Unanimous Decision (29-28)