Match Analysis: Charles Conwell vs Jorge Garcia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: April 19, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Frontwave Arena, Oceanside, California
Game Overview
Undefeated junior middleweight contender Charles Conwell (21-0, 16 KOs), ranked No. 2 by the WBO and No. 3 by the WBC, faces Jorge Garcia Perez (32-4, 26 KOs), ranked No. 3 by the WBO. Conwell’s 2024 resurgence includes three stoppage victories, while Perez’s split-decision losses suggest competitiveness. The bout is a WBO eliminator, positioning the winner for a title shot[4][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Conwell has a 76% KO rate and enters on a six-fight stoppage streak. Perez holds a 81% KO rate but has lost all four decisions, including three splits[4][5].
- First meeting between the fighters[2].
- No reported injuries[4][5].
- Conwell’s Golden Boy promotional backing and home-soil advantage (fight in California vs. Perez’s single prior U.S. appearance)[5].
- Conwell seeks a WBO title shot; Perez aims to overcome perennial contender status[4][5].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Conwell -900 / Perez +550 | Conwell | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Conwell -3.5 rounds | Conwell covers | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5 rounds (-120) / Under 7.5 rounds (+100) | Under 7.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charles Conwell -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Charles Conwell at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Conwell by mid-to-late KO (Rounds 7-9) due to superior power, recent form, and technical edge against Perez’s durability[4][5].
Predicted Score: Conwell wins via KO/TKO (Round 8)