Match Analysis: Ryan Kelly vs Caoimhin Agyarko – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-19
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Canon Medical Arena, Sheffield, England
Game Overview
The upcoming Super Welterweight bout features Ryan Kelly facing Caoimhin Agyarko on April 19, 2025, at the Canon Medical Arena in Sheffield. Agyarko steps in on short notice following Ishmael Davis's injury, creating an intriguing matchup as Kelly looks to end a two-fight winless streak and Agyarko aims to maintain his unbeaten record of 16-0. The fight serves as a supporting bout to the Dalton Smith-Mathieu Germain card on DAZN.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ryan Kelly is coming off consecutive setbacks including a split decision loss and a draw, aiming to regain form. Caoimhin Agyarko, unbeaten at 16-0 with 7 KOs, has had limited ring activity over the recent years but is in good rhythm with a recent eight-round points victory in late March. Agyarko’s quick turnaround for this fight suggests sharp preparation but potentially limited rest.
- There is no prior head-to-head record between Ryan Kelly and Caoimhin Agyarko, making this their first meeting in the ring.
- Ishmael Davis withdrew due to an injury, opening the door for Agyarko to step in. Kelly does not report any recent injury concerns ahead of this contest.
- The fight takes place at a neutral venue in Sheffield with Agyarko traveling from Belfast and Kelly from Birmingham. The short-notice nature of Agyarko’s involvement could affect conditioning, but also suggests high motivation. The bout is a part of a high-profile card streamed on DAZN, adding exposure and pressure.
- Kelly is motivated to snap his losing streak and restore momentum in his career at age 31. Agyarko, at 28, is focused on preserving his unbeaten record and capitalizing on this opportunity to raise his profile with back-to-back fights in a short span.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Caoimhin Agyarko: -305, Ryan Kelly: 230 | Caoimhin Agyarko | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Caoimhin Agyarko -1.5 rounds: -150, Ryan Kelly +1.5 rounds: +130 | Caoimhin Agyarko -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 rounds: -610, Under 8.5 rounds: 410 | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Caoimhin Agyarko -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 283% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 283% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 68.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Caoimhin Agyarko is favored to win given his unbeaten status, recent sharp activity, and the betting market odds. Kelly’s experience and need to break his slump may push the fight to a competitive contest, but Agyarko’s higher confidence and form likely give him the edge.
Predicted Score: Caoimhin Agyarko wins by 9-round decision or late stoppage