Match Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-28
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Octagon (exact location unspecified)
Game Overview
Highly anticipated lightweight title rematch between reigning champion Islam Makhachev (#1 ranked) and surging contender Arman Tsarukyan (#4 ranked). Their first meeting in 2019 saw Makhachev win via unanimous decision (29-28 across all cards) in a grappling-heavy battle.
Key Factors to Consider
- Makhachev (27-1) has dominated the division with elite grappling (60% takedown accuracy) and fight IQ. Tsarukyan (22-3) shows improved striking (4.62 SLpM) and defensive wrestling (78% takedown defense) since their first fight.
- Makhachev 1-0 (2019 decision). First fight metrics: Makhachev landed 2/5 takedowns, Tsarukyan 0/3. Significant strikes were 45-34 favoring Makhachev.
- No reported injuries
- Championship 5-round format favors Makhachev's pacing. Tsarukyan faces pressure in first UFC title fight.
- Makhachev defends belt & legacy. Tsarukyan seeks revenge and first title.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Makhachev -350 / Tsarukyan +285 | Makhachev by finish | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Projected 4.5 rounds (estimated -150/+120) | Over 3.5 rounds (-110 estimated) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Islam Makhachev 183% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Islam Makhachev at 183% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Makhachev retains via late submission (Rd 4). Tsarukyan's improved striking keeps it competitive early, but champion's grappling & championship experience prove decisive.
Predicted Score: Makhachev def. Tsarukyan via Submission (Arm Triangle) at 3:15 Rd4