Match Analysis: TSG Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-12
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, Germany
Game Overview
TSG Hoffenheim, currently 14th in the Bundesliga, hosts fourth-place FSV Mainz 05. Hoffenheim has struggled with consistency, having won only six games this season. Mainz 05, meanwhile, has been more successful, securing 46 points from 28 matches. Recent form shows Mainz 05 drawing their last game against Holstein Kiel 1-1, while Hoffenheim lost 3-1 to RB Leipzig.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mainz 05 has performed better overall, with a goal differential of +14 compared to Hoffenheim's -18. Mainz 05 also has a stronger defense, conceding only 32 goals across 28 games.
- Historically, matches between TSG Hoffenheim and FSV Mainz 05 often end in draws or narrow wins for either side. Over the last 33 meetings, Mainz 05 has won 15 times, while Hoffenheim has won nine.
- Notable absences for Hoffenheim include Ozan Kabak and Ihlas Bebou. Mainz's injury list includes Stefan Bell.
- Home advantage could play a role for Hoffenheim, but Mainz's superior form and standings suggest a slight advantage for the visitors.
- Mainz 05's motivation to secure points and maintain their fourth-place standing could be a key factor, while Hoffenheim needs wins to improve their position in the league.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | FSV Mainz 05: 150, TSG Hoffenheim: 170, Draw: 255 | FSV Mainz 05 to win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | FSV Mainz 05: 0 -118, TSG Hoffenheim: 0 -102 | FSV Mainz 05 to cover | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over_under | Over: 2.75 -105, Under: 2.75 -115 | Over 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | FSV Mainz 05 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mainz 05 is likely to win due to their better recent form and stronger team statistics.
Predicted Score: FSV Mainz 05 2-1 TSG Hoffenheim