Match Analysis: Stade de Reims vs Toulouse – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-20
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Auguste Delaune, Reims, France
Game Overview
The Ligue 1 clash between Stade de Reims and Toulouse at Stade Auguste Delaune will feature two mid-to-lower table teams with Toulouse currently 12th with 34 points and Reims 15th with 29 points. Both teams have struggled recently; Reims has won only 2 of their last 18 Ligue 1 matches and has a home defensive record conceding an average of 1.53 goals per game. Toulouse has suffered four losses in their last six matches and only two wins in their last 13 Ligue 1 outings. Previous encounters this season favored Toulouse, with a 1-0 away win and a 3-2 home win over Reims. Toulouse also tends to be involved in higher-scoring games, with their last five away Ligue 1 matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This match is likely to be competitive with goal-scoring opportunities on both sides[1][2][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Reims is in poor form with just 2 wins in 18 matches, and they have a negative goal difference of -11. Toulouse sits slightly higher at 12th place but has also been inconsistent, with 4 losses in the last 6 games and only 2 wins in their last 13 outings. Toulouse's offensive players like K Nakamura (11 goals) and Z Aboukhlal (7 goals) provide goal threats. Reims has struggled defensively and offensively alike this season.
- In the current season, these teams have met twice: Toulouse won both matches (1-0 away and 3-2 at home). Historically, the last five meetings indicate a slight edge for Toulouse, with more wins and goals scored. The rivalry remains tight but Toulouse has been the more successful side recently[1][2].
- No specific injury reports are available from the provided sources for either Stade de Reims or Toulouse, indicating potentially full-strength squads or no major absences affecting key players[1][3].
- The match being at Stade Auguste Delaune gives Reims home-field advantage, but their poor home defensive record diminishes this benefit. Weather and pitch conditions or other external factors have not been reported to impact this fixture[1].
- Both teams are motivated to improve their league standings. Reims, closer to the relegation zone, needs points to climb out of danger, while Toulouse aims to solidify mid-table safety. Recent form suggests Toulouse might have a psychological edge given their recent wins against Reims and slightly better league position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stade de Reims: 225, Toulouse: 125, Draw: 235 | Toulouse to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Stade de Reims: 25 -112, Toulouse: -0.25 -108 | Toulouse -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -125, Under 2.25: 105 | Over 2.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toulouse 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Toulouse's recent success against Reims, their better league standing, and the tendency for over 2.5 goals in their matches, the prediction leans towards a Toulouse victory in a relatively high-scoring match.
Predicted Score: 1-2
