Match Analysis: Santos vs Bragantino-SP – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-27
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Vila Belmiro, Santos, Brazil
Game Overview
The upcoming Campeonato Brasileiro match features Santos hosting Red Bull Bragantino-SP at Vila Belmiro. Santos is currently struggling in the league, ranked 18th, whereas Bragantino is performing strongly, standing 4th. This match offers a contrast in form and league positioning, with significant implications for Santos who need points to improve their standing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santos has shown inconsistent form this season, with a lower league ranking and fewer goals scored compared to Bragantino, who are placed 4th and have a higher goal threat. Santos averages fewer clean sheets and have been conceding goals regularly. Bragantino's recent performances have been comparatively better with more shots on goal and stronger attacking output.
- Historically, Santos holds a slight edge in head-to-head matches against Bragantino, winning 41% of their meetings, while Bragantino has won 19% and 41% ended in draws. At home, Santos also tends to perform better, winning 44% of second halves historically, but Bragantino is competitive especially in the first half with 26% wins.
- No specific injury data available from the sources, suggesting no major absences expected for either team.
- The match is played at Santos' home stadium Vila Belmiro, providing home advantage for Santos. Weather and pitch conditions are not specifically noted but are presumed normal for an evening fixture in Santos, Brazil.
- Santos will be highly motivated to secure points due to their precarious 18th position in the league, fighting to avoid relegation or improve standing. Bragantino, placed 4th, are motivated to consolidate their top-tier position and possibly push for continental competition qualification.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bragantino-SP: 310, Santos: -105, Draw: 235 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Bragantino-SP: -0.5 -118, Santos: +50 -102 | Santos +0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -120, Under 2: 100 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santos 51% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Santos at 51% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the current form disparity and league positions, Bragantino is favored to secure at least a draw or possibly an away win, though Santos' home advantage and historical edge suggest a closely contested match. A draw or narrow Bragantino win is the most probable outcome.
Predicted Score: 1-1
