Match Analysis: RC Lens vs Auxerre – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-27
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, France
Game Overview
RC Lens will host Auxerre in this Ligue 1 clash. Lens currently sits 8th in the standings with 45 points, showing solid form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches across all competitions. Auxerre, in 11th place with 38 points, has struggled on the road, losing 60% of their away games this season. Lens has historically dominated this fixture, being undefeated in their last 9 encounters against Auxerre and winning 10 of the last 11 home matches against them.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lens has averaged 1.5 points per match with 35 goals scored and 33 conceded, maintaining 12 clean sheets and a 40% clean sheet rate. They have an xG of 47.2 and xGA of 40.0, reflecting balanced offensive and defensive metrics. Auxerre's away form is poor, losing the majority of their road games which impacts their confidence and strategy.
- Lens is dominant in head-to-head matchups, undefeated in 9 consecutive matches against Auxerre and winning 10 of their last 11 home meetings, indicating a psychological and tactical edge.
- No specific injury details were noted in available data; expected starting goalkeepers are Mathew Ryan for Lens and Donovan Leon for Auxerre.
- The match is played at Lens’ home stadium, Stade Bollaert-Delelis, giving Lens a home advantage. No unusual external factors reported.
- Lens, sitting higher in the table and in better form, will be motivated to consolidate their position for a potential European spot, while Auxerre will aim to climb the table by challenging a higher-ranked opponent on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Auxerre: 420, RC Lens: -165, Draw: 330 | RC Lens to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Auxerre: 1 -120, RC Lens: -1 100 | RC Lens -1 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over: 2.75 -115, Under: 2.75 -105 | Under 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | RC Lens -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.75 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lens is favored to win given their superior form, home advantage, and historical dominance over Auxerre. The predicted scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Lens.
Predicted Score: 2-0