Match Analysis: Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 26 Apr 2025
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Loftus Road Stadium, London, England
Game Overview
Burnley holds a strong historical advantage over QPR with 11 wins in 23 meetings, while QPR has secured 5 victories. Recent form shows Burnley with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, compared to QPR's winless streak of 0 wins in the same period. Burnley is currently level on points at the top of the Championship table, indicating high stakes for promotion.
Key Factors to Consider
- Burnley averages 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in their last 5 games, while QPR averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded during the same period[3].
- Burnley has a dominant H2H record with 11 wins (48% win rate) compared to QPR's 5 wins (22% win rate), including a 3-0-2 advantage in the most recent 5 meetings[3][5].
- No specific injury data available, but lineups from their October 2024 meeting show squad rotation potential with substitutions like Jaidon Anthony and Josh Laurent featuring[5].
- QPR's home advantage at Loftus Road could be neutralized by Burnley's position in a tight promotion race, where goal difference might play a crucial role[1][5].
- Burnley is competing for automatic promotion, currently tied at 91 points with Leeds at the top of the table, while QPR has no indicated playoff/promotion stakes in available data[5].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley -101 | QPR 280 | Draw 210 | Burnley moneyline | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Burnley -0.5 (-101) | QPR +50 (-119) | Burnley -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (+103) | Under 2.25 (-123) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Burnley -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Burnley win (1-0 or 2-0) due to superior recent form, promotion motivation, and defensive stability, though QPR's home crowd may keep the score close.
Predicted Score: 0-2 Burnley