Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 26 Apr 2025
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, Brazil
Game Overview
Mirassol (11th) hosts Atletico Mineiro (17th) in a Brasileiro Serie A clash where both seek points for league advancement. Mirassol holds a 50% home win rate, while Mineiro has 3 draws in their last 6 matches but carries a 3-game away losing streak[5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol demonstrates balanced home form (50% win rate). Atletico Mineiro struggles away with recent defensive frailties, conceding in 3 consecutive away defeats[5].
- No recent direct H2H stats available, but Mineiro shows higher historical competitiveness with 78% six-month win rate vs Mirassol's 33% (season context unclear as these stats appear contradictory to league positions)[3][5].
- No injury data available in sources
- Home advantage for Mirassol at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, a venue where they've demonstrated mid-table stability[5].
- Both teams need points to escape lower-table positions, with Mineiro particularly desperate given their 17th-place standing[5].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 210 | Draw 230 | Atletico Mineiro 135 | Value lean toward Mirassol given odds discrepancy vs performance trends | 65% (moderate) |
Spread | Mineiro -0.25 (100) | Mirassol +25 (-120) | Mirassol +0.25 covers (negative odds reflect market caution) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (102) | Under 2.25 (-122) | Under (67% of Mineiro's recent games saw <2.5 goals)[5] | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 24% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mirassol at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mirassol edges match through home advantage and Mineiro's away struggles, but low-scoring affair likely
Predicted Score: 1-0 Mirassol (aligning with Forebet's 2-0 prediction but adjusted for under trends)[5]