Match Analysis: Leicester City vs Liverpool – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-20
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: King Power Stadium, Leicester, England
Game Overview
Leicester City sits at the bottom of the EPL table with 18 points from 32 matches, fighting relegation, while Liverpool leads the league with 76 points. Leicester has struggled all season with poor form, having scored only 27 goals and conceded 74, while Liverpool has been dominant with 23 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, boasting a +43 goal difference. Liverpool is chasing a second Premier League title, currently 13 points clear at the top. Leicester needs a win to have any survival hope, but recent form and head-to-head history heavily favor Liverpool.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liverpool is in top form with 12 unbeaten EPL matches and a potent attack led by Mohamed Salah (27 goals, 18 assists) and Luis Díaz. Leicester has won only 4 matches all season, scoring 27 goals but conceding 74, showing defensive weaknesses and a lack of offensive threat. Leicester recently ended an 8-game losing streak with a draw but remain under extreme pressure.
- Liverpool has won the last six matches against Leicester, including a 3-1 win in December 2024 in the EPL. Leicester last beat Liverpool at King Power Stadium in December 2021. Liverpool has dominated these encounters historically, and Leicester have not scored at home against Liverpool since December 2021.
- Leicester faces injury doubts including key forward Jamie Vardy. Liverpool has key players fit, with Trent Alexander-Arnold recently returning to training and Virgil van Dijk recently signing a contract extension, boosting defensive stability.
- The match is played at Leicester’s home King Power Stadium with mild weather (~61°F). Liverpool's recent contract renewals (Salah and van Dijk) boost team morale. Leicester could already be relegated depending on other match results prior to this game, which may affect motivation.
- Leicester is desperate to win to maintain any slim hope of Premier League survival, making this a high-stakes game. Liverpool is motivated to secure the league title and maintain their unbeaten run at this late stage in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Leicester City: +1025, Liverpool: -481, Draw: +540 | Liverpool to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Leicester City +1.5: +123, Liverpool -1.5: -164 | Liverpool -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: +109, Under 3.5: -144 | Under 3.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liverpool is strongly favored to win comfortably due to their superior form, squad strength, and recent dominance over Leicester. Leicester’s poor season and defensive frailties make an upset unlikely, though their relegation fight could make them competitive.
Predicted Score: Leicester City 0 – 3 Liverpool
