Match Analysis: Leganés vs Girona – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-24
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Game Overview
A critical La Liga clash between relegation-threatened Leganés (19th) and mid-table Girona (16th) at a tense Estadio Municipal de Butarque. The match could significantly influence Leganés' survival hopes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities – Leganés with 19th-place defensive record, Girona conceding 50+ goals this season. The 36%-36%-28% win/draw probabilities suggest near-even parity.
- No detailed historical records available in provided data. This season includes at least one previous encounter (Sofascore shows 1 match played this season).
- No injury reports available in provided sources. Monitor pre-match lineups.
- High-pressure environment for Leganés needing home advantage. Timezone conversion shows 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT for U.S. viewers.
- Leganés fighting relegation vs Girona's mid-table security creates asymmetric pressure dynamics.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Leganés +170 | Draw +215 | Girona +175 | Slight edge to Girona (36.2%) but value in draw market | Medium (65%) |
Spread | PK Handicap: Leganés -112 | Girona -108 | PK handicap shows bookmakers expecting tight match | High (75%) |
Over/under | O/U 2.25 | Over -105 | Under -115 | Under 2.25 favored (-115) aligns with relegation-pressure matches | Medium-High (70%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Girona -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
High probability of draw (27.7% per Dimers) with narrow win margins for either side. Value exists in draw odds at +215.
Predicted Score: 1-1 Draw