Match Analysis: Le Havre vs AS Monaco – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Oceane, Le Havre, France
Game Overview
The Ligue 1 match between Le Havre and AS Monaco is set at Stade Oceane with Monaco currently holding a strong 3rd place in the league, whereas Le Havre is battling near the relegation zone at 16th place. Monaco defeated Le Havre 3-1 in their previous encounter this season, indicating a clear superiority in form and squad strength.
Key Factors to Consider
- AS Monaco has been performing strongly in Ligue 1, positioned 3rd with 54 points from 30 games, showcasing attacking efficiency and positive goal difference (+22). Le Havre, in contrast, have struggled with only 8 wins, 3 draws, and 19 losses, holding 27 points and a -31 goal difference, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistency.
- In their recent 12 home matches against Monaco, Le Havre won 4 times, drew 3, and lost 5, reflecting a reasonably balanced but slightly Monaco-favored rivalry. The season's previous match saw Monaco winning convincingly 3-1 at home.
- No explicit injury data is provided in the current sources; however, lineups on match day and last-minute reports should be checked for any key absences that could influence the game dynamics.
- Playing at home gives Le Havre some advantage, but the overall team quality and current form favor AS Monaco. Weather and pitch conditions at Stade Oceane are expected to be standard for April in France, not significantly impacting play.
- Le Havre will be motivated to secure points to avoid relegation, while Monaco aims to consolidate their third-place position and possibly push for European competition qualification, increasing their incentive for a strong away win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AS Monaco: -235, Le Havre: 525, Draw: 420 | AS Monaco to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | AS Monaco: -1.25 -112, Le Havre: +1.25 -108 | AS Monaco -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | Over 3.25: -108, Under 3.25: -112 | Over 3.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AS Monaco -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.25 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AS Monaco is favored to win due to their superior squad quality, current league form, and recent head-to-head dominance. Le Havre may struggle to contain Monaco's attack, making a Monaco victory the most probable outcome.
Predicted Score: Le Havre 1 – 3 AS Monaco