Match Analysis: Genoa vs Lazio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-21
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
Game Overview
The Serie A match between Genoa and Lazio is a critical fixture in week 33 of the 2024-2025 season. Genoa, playing at home, have shown recent resilience with some positive results, while Lazio is coming off a mixed run of form. Both teams are looking to secure vital points to improve or solidify their league standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Genoa has recorded recent draws against Empoli and Cagliari and a narrow win against Lecce, showing moderate steadiness but limited scoring power. Lazio's recent results include a loss, a win, and some draws, indicating an inconsistent but capable squad with offensive threats.
- Historically, Lazio tends to have the upper hand against Genoa, particularly away from home, but Genoa's solid home form could serve as a counterbalance. Last encounters suggest tight contests with few high-scoring outcomes.
- Limited data on current injuries; presume usual squad availability. Absence of key players on either side could strongly influence tactics and outcome.
- The match is held at Luigi Ferraris Stadium, granting Genoa home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be normal, with no reported external disruptions.
- Both teams have motivation to secure points for league positioning — Lazio aiming to stay competitive in upper-mid table spots and Genoa fighting to avoid slipping lower in the standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Genoa: 240, Lazio: 125, Draw: 220 | Lazio to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Genoa: -0.25 at -112, Lazio: +25 at -108 | Lazio -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 108, Under 2.25: -128 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Lazio 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Lazio at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lazio holds a slight edge given their higher quality and odds, but Genoa’s home advantage and defensive solidity suggest a closely contested match likely to end in a draw or narrow Lazio victory.
Predicted Score: 1-1 or 1-2 in favor of Lazio