Match Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-19
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: MEWA Arena, Mainz, Germany
Game Overview
FSV Mainz 05, currently fifth in the Bundesliga, hosts VfL Wolfsburg, who sits at twelfth place. Mainz recently suffered a 2-0 loss to Hoffenheim, while Wolfsburg lost 3-2 to RB Leipzig. This match promises to be competitive, with Mainz seeking to reinforce their strong home record and Wolfsburg looking to break their losing streak.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mainz has a strong home performance, being undefeated in their last ten Bundesliga home matches. Wolfsburg has had mixed results on the road but still poses a threat with players like Mohamed El Amine Amoura and Jonas Wind.
- Mainz has struggled against Wolfsburg, with a recent loss in their head-to-head matchup and a poor overall head-to-head record. However, recent form may favor Mainz given Wolfsburg’s losing streak.
- No specific major injuries are noted for either team leading into this match, but Sebastian Bornauw is mentioned as sidelined for Wolfsburg.
- The home advantage could significantly favor Mainz, as they have been solid at MEWA Arena. Weather and crowd factors are expected to be minimal given the indoor nature of the venue.
- Both teams have strong motivation; Mainz to stay in the top half and Wolfsburg to climb out of the lower half of the table.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | FSV Mainz 05: 105, VfL Wolfsburg: 240, Draw: 265 | FSV Mainz 05 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | FSV Mainz 05: -0.25 -125, VfL Wolfsburg: 25 105 | FSV Mainz 05 to cover | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: -102, Under 2.75: -118 | Over | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | FSV Mainz 05 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: FSV Mainz 05 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Mainz's strong home record and Wolfsburg's recent struggles, a narrow victory for Mainz seems plausible.
Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of FSV Mainz 05