Match Analysis: Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-27
- Time: 10:15 AM UTC
- Location: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard-Geleen, Netherlands
Game Overview
Fortuna Sittard hosts Willem II in a tightly contested Eredivisie match, with historical head-to-head results showing near-parity. Both teams have shown inconsistent form recently, making this a balanced encounter.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fortuna averages 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in their last 5 matches; Willem II averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded[4].
- 16 total meetings: 5 Fortuna wins, 6 Willem II wins, 5 draws. Last 5 matches: 2 Fortuna wins, 1 draw, 2 Willem II wins[2][4].
- No injury data available in provided sources.
- Oddspedia's algorithm predicts a 1-1 draw[5], suggesting bookmakers may underestimate draw potential.
- Both teams sit mid-table with limited relegation/promotion stakes, though late-season form could influence squad rotations.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fortuna -125, Willem II +350, Draw +250 | Draw (Value Play) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Fortuna -0.5 (-122), Willem II +50 (+102) | Willem II +0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (-122), Under 2.25 (+102) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fortuna Sittard 103% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fortuna Sittard at 103% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
High-value draw likely given historical parity and current defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: 1-1 (Draw)