Match Analysis: Cerro Porteño vs Sporting Cristal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-24
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estadio la Nueva Olla
Game Overview
Crucial Group G match where Cerro Porteño seeks to extend their unbeaten home run in Libertadores (6 games), while Sporting Cristal aims to overcome historical struggles against the hosts.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cerro Porteño recently regained confidence with a league win, while Sporting Cristal arrives with potential injury concerns[1]. Cerro boasts a formidable home record (4W-2D in last 6 Libertadores home matches)[4].
- Cerro Porteño remains undefeated in Libertadores against Cristal (2W-2D), including a 1-0 home win in 2023[4]. Historical dominance includes a 5-0 victory in 1973[4].
- Sporting Cristal reportedly arrives 'herido' (injured/wounded)[1], though specific player absences aren't detailed.
- Cerro's recent league struggles contrast with their Copa focus after exiting Apertura title race[1]. Cristal becomes the 10th team to reach 250 Libertadores matches[4].
- High stakes for group positioning, with Cerro needing home wins and Cristal seeking to prove continental pedigree.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | CER: -135 | SCR: 370 | Draw: 255 | Cerro Porteño Moneyline | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | CER -0.75 (-108) | SCR +75 (-122) | Cerro Porteño -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (-108) | Under 2.25 (-122) | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cerro Porteño 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Cerro Porteño at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Home advantage and historical dominance favor Cerro Porteño in a tight match, though goal difference suggests defensive caution.
Predicted Score: 1-0 (Cerro Porteño)