Match Analysis: Benfica vs Arouca – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-13
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
Game Overview
Benfica, currently leading the Primeira Liga, faces Arouca at home. Benfica has been in dominant form, while Arouca struggles with consistency, having lost two consecutive league games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Benfica has maintained strong form, with recent wins against Porto and Tirsense. In contrast, Arouca is winless in their last three league games.
- Benfica has a significant advantage over Arouca in head-to-head matches, winning 17 out of 19 encounters.
- Benfica will be missing Alexander Bah, Manu Silva, and Renato Sanches. Arouca has injuries to David Simão and Tiago Esgaio, while several players face late fitness tests.
- Motivation for Benfica remains high as they seek to maintain their league position. Arouca will look to regroup and improve their form.
- Both teams are motivated, but Benfica's recent form and league position give them a psychological advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Benfica -600, Arouca 1300, Draw 600 | Benfica to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | Benfica -2 -120, Arouca +2 100 | Benfica to cover the spread | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Over_under | Over 3.25 -112, Under 3.25 -108 | Over 3.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Benfica -13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.25 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Benfica's strong current form and historical dominance over Arouca, they are expected to secure a comfortable victory.
Predicted Score: Benfica 3, Arouca 1