Match Analysis: Bragantino-SP vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-20
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Nabizao, Braganca Paulista, Brazil
Game Overview
The Brazil Campeonato Serie A match between home team Bragantino-SP and away team Cruzeiro is set to be a competitive encounter. Both teams have shown mixed form in the season, with Bragantino-SP holding a slight advantage in home performance, not losing their last 7 home matches, while Cruzeiro is enduring a winless streak in their last 4 games. Historically, Cruzeiro holds a superior head-to-head record with 3 wins in the last 6 meetings and a goal advantage of 10-5. Recent matches between the two have been balanced, including a draw and a narrow Cruzeiro win last season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bragantino-SP has a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 3 matches this season, totaling 4 points with a goal difference of 4:4. Cruzeiro mirrors this record but with a slightly negative goal difference of 3:5. Bragantino's home form has been solid, remaining unbeaten in their last 7 home matches, whereas Cruzeiro has struggled to secure wins recently, failing to win in their last 4 matches.
- In the last 6 encounters, Cruzeiro leads with 3 wins, Bragantino has not won any, and 3 matches ended in draws. The goal difference favors Cruzeiro 10-5. Last season’s fixtures included a 1-1 draw at Bragantino’s home and a 2-1 victory for Cruzeiro at their home.
- No specific injury data is provided from the current sources, suggesting no major injury concerns publicly reported for either team ahead of the match.
- The match is played at Bragantino's home ground, Nabizao, which could provide them a slight advantage given their unbeaten home streak. No other external factors such as weather or travel difficulties are mentioned.
- Bragantino-SP will be motivated to maintain their strong home record and improve their league standing, capitalizing on Cruzeiro's recent winless run. Cruzeiro, despite recent poor form, will seek to break their winless streak and leverage their historical dominance in head-to-head matches.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bragantino-SP: 1.05, Cruzeiro: 2.5, Draw: 2.6 | Bragantino-SP to win | ★★☆☆☆ 43% |
Spread | Bragantino-SP: -0.25 -125, Cruzeiro: +25 105 | Bragantino-SP -0.25 | Moderate |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -120, Under 2.25: 100 | Under 2.25 goals | Around 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bragantino-SP -13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bragantino-SP is predicted to edge this match given their home advantage and recent unbeaten home form, despite Cruzeiro's better overall head-to-head record. The game is expected to be closely contested, possibly ending in a narrow win for Bragantino or a draw.
Predicted Score: 1-1