Match Analysis: Auxerre vs Lyon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-13
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Game Overview
Auxerre faces Lyon in a Ligue 1 match with Auxerre striving to maintain their mid-table position and Lyon aiming to secure a UEFA Champions League spot. Recent form favors Auxerre, but Lyon's head-to-head advantage and higher stakes could influence the outcome.
Key Factors to Consider
- Auxerre has improved significantly with four wins in their last six matches, while Lyon has won six of their last eight games, including a recent 2-2 draw with Manchester United.
- Lyon has dominated the head-to-head, winning four of their last six meetings. The previous encounter ended in a 2-2 draw.
- Auxerre's Han-Noah Massengo is suspended, and several players are injured. Lyon suffers from winger injuries, with Ernest Nuamah and Malick Fofana unavailable.
- Lyon's recent Europa League match might cause fatigue, but their need for Champions League qualification is a significant motivator.
- Lyon has more to play for with potential Champions League spots available, while Auxerre is relatively safe in mid-table.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Auxerre: +245, Lyon: +105, Draw: +275 | Lyon to win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Auxerre: 50 -125, Lyon: -0.5 +105 | Lyon to cover | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over_under | Over: 3 -102, Under: 3 -118 | Over | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Lyon 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lyon is favored to win due to their strong recent form and high stakes despite potential fatigue from their Europa League match.
Predicted Score: Auxerre 0-2 Lyon