Match Analysis: Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 12:05 AM UTC
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Bucks host the Indiana Pacers in Game 3 of their 2025 NBA Playoffs first-round series. The Pacers currently lead the series 2-0, having won convincingly in the first two games, including a 123-115 victory in Game 2 on April 22, 2025. Key players for the Pacers, Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, have delivered strong performances, while Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks with significant scoring and rebounding efforts. The Bucks are seeking to avoid a 3-0 series deficit at home to regain momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- Indiana Pacers have outperformed Milwaukee Bucks in recent playoff games, winning five of the last six postseason matchups and currently leading 2-0 in this series. Siakam (24 points, 11 rebounds) and Haliburton (21 points, 12 assists) have been pivotal, while Antetokounmpo posted 34 points and 18 rebounds in Game 2. Bucks have struggled to contain the Pacers' offense and have yet to lead after early Game 1 minutes.
- In the recent postseason and regular season matchups, Pacers have dominated, winning five of the last six playoff games and three of four regular-season games against the Bucks. This Game 3 marks their 18th meeting in two seasons, with Pacers having the edge overall.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the current date. Damian Lillard returned in Game 2 after absence, contributing 14 points and 7 assists, providing a boost to the Bucks' lineup.
- Game held at Milwaukee's home arena, Fiserv Forum, with notable attendance expected including prominent local sports figures. Bucks have home court advantage but face pressure to turn the series after two home losses.
- The Bucks are highly motivated to avoid a 3-0 deficit and stave off elimination on their home court. The Pacers, confident from their leading position, are motivated to close out the series quickly, having shown consistent control in previous games.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Indiana Pacers: 150, Milwaukee Bucks: -180 | Milwaukee Bucks | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Indiana Pacers: -4 -108, Milwaukee Bucks: +4 -112 | Milwaukee Bucks +4 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 229.5: -110, Under 229.5: -110 | Over 229.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Bucks -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 229.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 229.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indiana Pacers are favored to win again given their current momentum, stronger playoff performance, and recent success against the Bucks. However, the Bucks' home advantage and the return of Lillard could tighten the contest.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Bucks 118 – Indiana Pacers 121