Match Analysis: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 8:05 PM UTC
- Location: Not specified in available data
Game Overview
The New York Mets (18-8) face the Washington Nationals (12-14) in an NL East matchup. The Mets aim to bounce back after a 5-4 loss on April 25 where a late rally and defensive miscues proved costly. Kodai Senga (Mets) recently allowed 2 runs over 6 innings, while Jake Irvin (Nationals) held the Mets to 1 run in his prior start[3][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Mets show resilience with late-inning offense but defensive inconsistencies (e.g., Dylan Cruz's missed catch in April 25 game). Nationals capitalize on opponents' mistakes effectively[4][5].
- Recent matchups show tight contests (e.g., 5-4 Nationals win on April 25)
- No injury specifics available from provided data
- Road fatigue potential for Mets given prior loss in Washington
- Mets seek to maintain NL East lead; Nationals aim to climb standings
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | NYM -180 / WSH +152 | Mets moneyline (moderate confidence) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | NYM -1.5 (-118) / WSH +1.5 (-102) | Nationals +1.5 spread (higher confidence) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 9.5 (+100) / Under 9.5 (-122) | Under 9.5 runs (moderate confidence) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets 61% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: New York Mets at 61% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mets win (-180 value) but narrow margin. Nationals' home advantage and Mets' defensive concerns make +1.5 spread viable. Expect moderate scoring (lean Under 9.5)
Predicted Score: Mets 5-4 Nationals