Match Analysis: San José St Spartans vs San Diego St Aztecs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-18
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Excite Ballpark, San Jose, California
Game Overview
San José State Spartans will host San Diego State Aztecs in a highly competitive Mountain West NCAA baseball matchup. The Spartans hold a strong home record (14-5) and have shown resilience with recent wins, including a decisive 10-2 victory over the Aztecs in their last series meeting. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have a historically dominant series record against the Spartans (88-46 overall) and have displayed solid pitching and strikeout capability this season, though their overall record (6-14) is weaker. The game is expected to be closely contested given the teams' contrasting recent performances and series history.
Key Factors to Consider
- San José State is performing well at home with a 14-5 record and recently defeated SDSU 10-2 by capitalizing on strong hitting, including four triples, and effective pitching from Win Scott and Tyler Albanese. San Diego State has strong pitching stats in the Mountain West, leading in innings pitched and strikeouts, but their offense has struggled to produce consistency, reflected in their 6-14 record and high ERA (7.43).
- San Diego State leads the all-time series 88-46, including 49-18 at home and 34-28 on the road. SDSU has won 83 of the last 130 games when hitting home runs, but in the most recent series in March, San José State won the finale 10-2 after SDSU swept a doubleheader. SDSU is 36-20 versus SJSU since joining Mountain West in 2013-14, but SJSU won the last head-to-head game decisively.
- No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of this matchup.
- The game is at Excite Ballpark, home advantage favors San José State. The Aztecs have travel fatigue concerns as they head north for this series. Weather and other external conditions are presumed normal for mid-April in San Jose.
- San José State aims to continue their strong home form and capitalize on recent success against SDSU. The Aztecs are motivated to reclaim dominance in the series and improve their poor overall record. SDSU's pitching staff’s Mountain West leadership in innings and strikeouts signals strong motivation to contain the Spartans’ offense.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego St Aztecs: 200, San José St Spartans: -270 | San José St Spartans | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | San José St Spartans: -1.5 @ -110, San Diego St Aztecs: +1.5 @ -110 | San José St Spartans to cover -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -110, Under 8.5: -110 | Over 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San José St Spartans 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: San José St Spartans at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San José State is favored to win due to home advantage, recent dominant win over SDSU, and strong team performance. The Aztecs pose a threat with their pitching prowess but have struggled to consistently score runs.
Predicted Score: San José St Spartans 7 – San Diego St Aztecs 4