Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs Air Force Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-18
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Pete Beiden Field at Bob Bennett Stadium, Fresno, CA
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs (17-19, 10-5 MW) will host the Air Force Falcons (15-22, 7-8 MW) in a Mountain West baseball series starting April 17, 2025, at Pete Beiden Field. Fresno State leads the historical series 40-27 and has shown stronger performance in conference play. Recent encounters include Fresno State eliminating Air Force in the 2024 Mountain West tournament with a 10-3 win. The Bulldogs have a potent offense with several players boasting high OPS figures, while Air Force exhibits speed and strong on-base skills. Fresno State’s pitching features standout Jack Anker, the Mountain West strikeout leader. The Falcons' pitching has struggled with high ERAs, including the probable starter Dylan Rogers with a 9.32 ERA.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State holds a better conference record (10-5 vs. Air Force's 7-8) and boasts a powerful lineup led by high OPS hitters like Walker Zapp (1.049 OPS) and Tripp Garrish (0.982 OPS). They also have the dominant pitcher Jack Anker, who recently threw a 16-strikeout game and leads the conference in strikeouts. Air Force’s offense excels in speed and small ball, leading the league in stolen bases and ranking well in on-base percentage, but their pitching staff struggles with high ERAs, notably Dylan Rogers with 9.32.
- Fresno State leads the all-time series 40-27 and won the majority of recent meetings, including a key 10-3 victory in last year's Mountain West tournament that eliminated Air Force. Fresno State also won the first series of the 2025 season 2-1 but was swept in an away series. Overall, Fresno State has outscored Air Force historically (459-381).
- No significant injury reports available for either team prior to the series.
- The game is played at Fresno State’s home stadium, giving them home field advantage on a grass surface. The Falcons have traveled west for the series, which may affect their performance. Weather and other environmental factors are assumed neutral with no adverse conditions reported.
- Fresno State is motivated to maintain home dominance and improve their conference standing following recent losses to Cal Poly. Air Force aims to improve their losing record and replicate their previous upset performances against Fresno State, including last season’s Mountain West tournament series.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Air Force Falcons: 255, Fresno St Bulldogs: -360 | Fresno St Bulldogs to win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Air Force Falcons: 2.5 -125, Fresno St Bulldogs: -2.5 -104 | Fresno St Bulldogs -2.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Over/under | Over: 10.5 -121, Under: 10.5 -107 | Under 10.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 10.5 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State is favored to win due to superior pitching, stronger offensive metrics, home field advantage, and historical dominance in the rivalry. Air Force’s speed and small ball tactics are notable but may not overcome Fresno State’s balanced strengths, particularly against weaker Falcons pitching.
Predicted Score: Fresno St Bulldogs 6 – Air Force Falcons 3