Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-25
- Time: 6:20 PM UTC
- Location: Chicago Cubs Home Stadium
Game Overview
This MLB regular season matchup features the Chicago Cubs hosting the Philadelphia Phillies. Both teams have a long history dating back decades, with the Phillies holding a slight historical edge overall. The Cubs have shown stronger recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 games, while the Phillies have also won 4 of their last 5 but with less scoring output.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs have averaged 7.8 runs per game in their last 5, with a 60% handicap-runs win rate, indicating strong offensive performance recently. The Phillies have averaged 4.8 runs per game in their last 5, with only 20% handicap-runs win rate in the same span. Historically, the Phillies generally have slightly higher points per game (5.0) compared to the Cubs (4.5).
- All-time, the Cubs and Phillies have played over 160 games since 1993, with the Phillies leading 91-75. In more recent seasons, the Phillies have dominated, holding a 9-3 record over the last 12 games through 2024 and into 2025. However, the Cubs won the last matchup at home decisively 10-2 on July 4, 2024. The Phillies are somewhat favored historically, but recent form and home advantage favor the Cubs.
- No specific injury information is available for this match, suggesting both teams likely have key players available.
- Playing at home gives the Cubs an advantage, and early season form favors Chicago's offense. Weather or other external conditions were not reported to significantly affect this game.
- The Cubs are motivated to assert home dominance and improve their early-season record, while the Phillies aim to maintain their strong head-to-head record against the Cubs and bounce back after recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -132, Philadelphia Phillies: 112 | Chicago Cubs to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs -1.5: 152, Philadelphia Phillies +1.5: -184 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -102, Under 8.5: -120 | Over 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Cubs' recent offensive surge, home advantage, and Philadelphia's lower recent scoring average, the Cubs are favored to win this contest. The game is expected to be moderately high scoring, potentially exceeding the total runs line.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 6 – 4 Philadelphia Phillies