Match Analysis: Fiorentina vs Empoli – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-27
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Italy
Game Overview
Fiorentina, currently 8th in Serie A with 56 points, hosts struggling Empoli, placed 19th with 25 points. Fiorentina has been strong at home with a 67% win rate in their last six home matches, while Empoli has lost half of their last six fixtures. Their recent head-to-head encounters have been tightly contested with five draws in six meetings. Fiorentina has kept a clean sheet in their last four home games, suggesting a strong defensive display.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fiorentina has shown good form at home recently, securing multiple wins and clean sheets, while Empoli has been inconsistent and struggling to get results, losing 50% of their recent matches.
- Out of the last six meetings, five ended in draws, indicating a very even rivalry historically between the two sides.
- Current detailed injury updates are not explicitly available, but any minor setbacks to Empoli's key players could further weaken an already struggling side.
- Playing at the Stadio Artemio Franchi gives Fiorentina a significant home advantage. Empoli’s low morale from recent losses and their low table position may impact their performance negatively.
- Fiorentina is motivated to consolidate a top-half finish and possibly push for European competition qualification, while Empoli is likely fighting relegation pressure, adding urgency but also pressure.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Empoli: 360, Fiorentina: -125, Draw: 260 | Fiorentina to win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Empoli: 50 @ 102, Fiorentina: -0.5 @ -122 | Fiorentina -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -112, Under 2.25: -108 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fiorentina 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fiorentina is expected to edge this match narrowly given their strong home form and Empoli's struggles, with a predicted close 1-0 victory for the home side.
Predicted Score: 1-0