Match Analysis: Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 27 Apr 2025
- Time: 12:30 PM UTC
- Location: Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Game Overview
Ajax (1st in Eredivisie) faces Sparta Rotterdam (11th) in a match where Ajax holds a dominant historical home record (20 wins in last 21 home meetings). Sparta Rotterdam enters with improved form (DDWWW in last 5), while Ajax remains strong (DWWWL).
Key Factors to Consider
- Ajax averages 2+ goals per game (73 pts in 30 matches), while Sparta shows defensive resilience (33 goals conceded in 29 matches).
- Ajax has won 34 of last 43 meetings (4-0 most frequent home score). Last meeting ended 2-2 (March 2024), breaking Ajax's dominance temporarily.
- No injury data available, but key player form (e.g., Steven Bergwijn's recent goal contributions) suggests Ajax's attacking strength.
- Home advantage significant – Ajax has outscored Sparta 83-14 in last 21 home matches. Crowd support likely to influence momentum.
- Ajax aims to maintain title charge, while Sparta fights for mid-table security.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Ajax -215 | Draw 350 | Sparta 500 | Ajax win | ★★★★☆ 82% |
Spread | Ajax -1.25 (100) | Sparta +1.25 (-120) | Ajax covers -1.25 spread | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | Over 3 (-110) | Under 3 (-110) | Over 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Ajax -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ajax to win with at least a 2-goal margin, given their superior attacking quality and Sparta's vulnerability to heavy defeats at this venue.
Predicted Score: Ajax 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam