Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 26 Apr 2025
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ilha do Retiro, Recife
Game Overview
Sport Recife (20th) faces Fortaleza (7th) in Brasileiro Serie A Round 6. Sport enters on a 4-game losing streak with 0.60 goals/game, while Fortaleza aims to improve their 1-win record in last 11 away matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sport Recife: 0.60 goals/game, 4 consecutive losses. Fortaleza: 5 goals scored/conceded in 5 matches, 1 away win in last 11 attempts[5][2]
- Last 4 H2H meetings saw under 2.5 goals. Historical H2H at Ilha do Retiro: 3 Sport wins, 3 Fortaleza wins, 2 draws[5]
- No specific injury data provided
- Home crowd advantage for Sport Recife, though current form negates this benefit
- Sport desperately needs points to escape relegation zone; Fortaleza seeks top-half consolidation
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza 190 | Draw 230 | Sport Recife 150 | Fortaleza win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | Fortaleza 0 (105) | Sport Recife 0 (-125) | Fortaleza to cover 0 spread | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (102) | Under 2.25 (-122) | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza 16% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Low-scoring game favoring Fortaleza's slightly better organization. Expect under 2.25 goals and potential away win given Sport's defensive vulnerabilities
Predicted Score: 0-1 Fortaleza