Match Analysis: Gil Vicente vs SC Farense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 26 Apr 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos, Portugal
Game Overview
Gil Vicente hosts SC Farense in a closely contested Primeira Liga matchup, with recent head-to-head results showing a balanced rivalry (3 wins each, 1 draw in 7 meetings). Gil Vicente won their most recent encounter 1-0 on December 14, 2024[2], but recent form discrepancies exist in the data (sources conflict on last 5 results for Gil Vicente, while Farense shows 1W-1D-3L)[3].
Key Factors to Consider
- Conflicting data: One source shows Gil Vicente lost their last 5 games[3], but this directly contradicts their 1-0 win over Farense in December 2024[2]. Current season standings unavailable for precise analysis.
- Perfect parity with 3 wins each (1 draw) in 7 meetings[3], including a recent Gil Vicente victory[2]. Goals per match historically low (2.14 average)[3].
- No specific injury reports available in provided data.
- Home advantage for Gil Vicente at Estadio Cidade de Barcelos[1], though historical head-to-head doesn't show strong home dominance.
- Mid-table positioning likely for both teams based on limited standings data[5], but exact league positions unavailable.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Gil Vicente +130 | Draw +205 | SC Farense +225 | Gil Vicente/Draw (double chance) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Gil Vicente -0.25 (-105) | SC Farense +25 (-115) | SC Farense +0.25 (cover) | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (+105) | Under 2.25 (-125) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Gil Vicente -13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Value lies with home side given recent head-to-head success and slightly shorter odds, but low-scoring affair expected. Draw remains strong possibility given historical parity.
Predicted Score: 1-1 draw