Match Analysis: Santa Clara vs Arouca – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Portugal
Game Overview
The upcoming Primeira Liga match between Santa Clara and Arouca will take place at Estadio de São Miguel. Santa Clara, mid-table with 47 points, have shown mixed recent form with 2 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last 5 games. Arouca are lower in the table with 33 points and a recent run of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. Historically, encounters between these teams have been competitive with a slight edge to Arouca in total wins but Santa Clara stronger at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santa Clara has a balanced goals scored and conceded record (29:29) and has been solid at home. Arouca has conceded significantly more goals (30:45) and have struggled on the road. Santa Clara's recent home form is better with 2 wins and a draw in last 5 home games versus Arouca's inconsistent away performance.
- In 18 meetings since 2010, Santa Clara won 3 times, Arouca 9 times, with 6 draws. At home, Santa Clara has 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses against Arouca in last 8 home meetings. The most common result is 0-1 favoring Arouca. Recent matches have been tight.
- No specific injury updates available from current data. Both teams likely to field strong lineups.
- The match is played at Santa Clara’s home ground, giving them home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be normal with no disruptions.
- Santa Clara need points to solidify mid-table position and potentially push higher, while Arouca will fight to avoid further slide down the table. Both teams have motivation but Santa Clara's home advantage and recent form provide better incentive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Santa Clara: -105, Draw: 215, Arouca: 300 | Santa Clara Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Santa Clara -0.5: 102, Arouca +50: -122 | Santa Clara -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 105, Under 2.25: -125 | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Santa Clara 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Santa Clara to win in a close, low-scoring match.
Predicted Score: 1-0