Match Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: BayArena
Game Overview
Bayer Leverkusen hosts Augsburg in a Bundesliga clash. Leverkusen, trailing league leaders Bayern Munich by 8 points, seek to strengthen their position. Augsburg, 10th with 43 points, remain unbeaten in their last 8 Bundesliga away games in 2025[4]. Leverkusen are undefeated in 23 of their last 25 head-to-head matches[3].
Key Factors to Consider
- Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (3 wins, 2 draws). Augsburg have drawn their last two matches (vs Frankfurt and a prior draw)[4].
- Leverkusen dominate historically: 20 wins in 29 meetings, Augsburg with 2 wins[4]. Recent form includes Leverkusen's 2-0 win in their last encounter[5].
- No specific injury updates available from current data.
- Augsburg's strong away resilience (8 unbeaten) contrasts with Leverkusen's home advantage and historical dominance[3][4].
- Leverkusen aim to close the gap on Bayern Munich; Augsburg seek mid-table stability[4].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Leverkusen -275 | Draw 400 | Augsburg 700 | Leverkusen Win | 75% (reflecting historical dominance but accounting for Augsburg’s away form) |
Spread | Leverkusen -1.25 (-118) | Augsburg +1.25 (-102) | Leverkusen -1.25 (win by 2+ goals) | 60% (Leverkusen’s recent draws and Augsburg’s defensive away record limit margin confidence) |
Over/under | Over 2.75 (+100) | Under 2.75 (-120) | Under 2.75 Goals | 55% (augmented by Augsburg’s low-scoring recent draws and Leverkusen’s controlled play) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bayer Leverkusen 444% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.75 -5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bayer Leverkusen at 444% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Leverkusen win, likely 2-0 or 2-1, given their historical edge and Augsburg's away resilience[3][4].
Predicted Score: 2-0 (Leverkusen)