Match Analysis: Bahia vs Atlético Nacional S.A – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-25
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Brazil
Game Overview
The CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores Group F clash between Bahia and Atlético Nacional is set to take place at Arena Fonte Nova. Both teams are contending fiercely in the group, with Bahia currently ranked 2nd and Atlético Nacional 3rd. Recent matches show competitive balance with both teams having scored and conceded similar goals. Key players to watch include Bahia's Jean Lucas and Atlético Nacional's A. Morelos, both with 1 goal so far in the group stage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia has scored 2 goals and conceded 2 in the group, maintaining 4 clean sheets in recent matches, showing defensive solidity. Atlético Nacional has scored 3 and conceded 3 with fewer clean sheets but higher shots on goal, indicating a more attacking style. Bahia has home advantage playing at Arena Fonte Nova.
- Previous encounters show tight matches with no decisive dominance by either team, though away matches have been challenging for both sides. Recent form indicates balanced competition within Group F.
- No specific injury data was available, suggesting both teams are likely close to full strength.
- Playing in Salvador gives Bahia home crowd advantage. Weather or pitch conditions are not reported as an issue. Both teams are motivated by group standings and advancement prospects.
- Bahia, positioned 2nd in Group F, aims to consolidate their standing with a home win, while Atlético Nacional, sitting 3rd, need to gain points away to improve their qualification chances, adding to competitive intensity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia: -120, Atlético Nacional: 320, Draw: 245 | Bahia win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Bahia: -0.5 -120, Atlético Nacional: +50 -110 | Bahia to cover -0.5 spread | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -122, Under 2.25: -108 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering the home advantage, Bahia’s defensive record, and slightly better recent form, Bahia is favored to win narrowly. Expect a competitive match with limited goal margin.
Predicted Score: 1-0