Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-24
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Game Overview
AZ Alkmaar (6th, 46 pts) hosts NAC Breda (15th, 31 pts) in a mid-table vs relegation-threatened clash. AZ seeks to rebound from recent inconsistent form (DDDLL in last five), while NAC aims to build on a resilient defensive record (DDDLD in last five).
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ has superior attacking metrics (47 goals vs NAC's 31) and home advantage, but recent defensive vulnerabilities are evident. NAC shows disciplined organization but struggles offensively (49 goals conceded).
- AZ dominates historically with 21 wins in 42 meetings, including a 1-2 away win this season[3]. Recent H2H trends favor AZ (4W-1L-1D in last six), though 1-2 remains the most common scoreline[4].
- No specific injury data available in provided sources.
- AFAS Stadion's home advantage for AZ, with previous H2H home matches showing 12 wins in 22 encounters[4].
- AZ needs points for European qualification, while NAC battles to avoid relegation zone.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AZ -240 / Draw 350 / NAC 600 | AZ Win | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | AZ -1.25 (-108) / NAC +1.25 (-112) | AZ -1.25 Cover | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.75 (-108) / Under 2.75 (-112) | Over 2.75 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar 355% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: AZ Alkmaar at 355% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 59.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar win with goals (2-3 total goals), though NAC's counterattacks may produce a close scoreline.
Predicted Score: 2-1 AZ Alkmaar
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