Match Analysis: Alianza Lima vs Club Atletico Talleres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-22
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Matute)
Game Overview
Alianza Lima (1 point) faces Talleres (0 points) in a critical Group D match. Both teams trail Libertad (6 points) and São Paulo (4 points) and need a win to stay competitive. Alianza drew São Paulo 2-2 in their last Libertadores match, showing attacking potential, while Talleres lost both group games (0-1 to São Paulo, 0-2 to Libertad) and recently fell to Vélez Sarsfield domestically.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alianza shows defensive frailties (-1 goal difference) but home advantage; Talleres struggles offensively (-3 goal difference).
- No recent H2H data found; this appears to be their first competitive meeting.
- No injury reports available in provided sources.
- Talleres arrives after a domestic loss; Alianza enters as slight favorites at home.
- Both teams are desperate for points to maintain knockout stage hopes.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Alianza 170 | Talleres 175 | Draw 190 | Alianza Lima moneyline | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Spread | 0 (-118 Alianza) | 0 (-112 Talleres) | No spread advantage (pick'em) | ★★★☆☆ 50% |
Over/under | Over 2 (-108) | Under 2 (-122) | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Alianza Lima 22% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alianza Lima at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tight match with Alianza leveraging home support. Expect under 2 goals due to both teams' scoring struggles.
Predicted Score: 1-0 Alianza Lima