Match Analysis: Torino vs Udinese – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-21
- Time: 10:30 AM UTC
- Location: Allianz Stadium, Torino
Game Overview
The Serie A match between Torino and Udinese is a closely contested fixture with historical balance. Torino holds a slight edge in past meetings, having won 15 out of 37 matches, while Udinese won 13, and 9 ended in draws. Both teams display moderate goal-scoring averages, with Torino scoring around 1.18 goals per match and Udinese slightly higher at 1.40 goals per match for the 2025 season. The match tends to produce roughly 2.35 total goals on average based on head-to-head encounters, indicating a moderately open game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Torino is performing well at home with 5 home wins and a stable recent form, including no losses in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws). Udinese, while in poorer overall form in Serie A, has managed 4 away wins but recently did not win any of their last 5 Serie A matches. Defensively, Torino concedes fewer goals (1.1 per match) compared to Udinese's 1.35. Both teams have similar Asian Handicap success around 40% in recent matches.
- Historically balanced with Torino slightly leading, 15 wins to Udinese's 13 in 37 matches. The last direct matches saw draws and narrow wins from both sides, with an average of 2.35 goals per match. Recent meetings include a draw and narrow victories, showing tight contests without dominant performances. Both sides have strong motivation to improve league positioning (Torino 11th, Udinese 10th with 39 and 40 points respectively).
- No specific injury data provided in the sources; assume largely full squads or minor/typical injuries with no critical absences reported.
- Playing at Allianz Stadium gives Torino a home advantage with a supportive crowd. Weather or pitch conditions were not specified but generally expected to be typical for April in Torino. Both teams have relatively balanced motivation as mid-table contestants aiming to ascend.
- Udinese sits 10th with 40 points, just ahead of Torino in 11th with 39 points, intensifying their motivation to secure points to improve league standing. Torino seeks to capitalize on home advantage and maintain good form, while Udinese aims to break their recent poor run and reinforce their position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Torino: 140, Udinese: 235, Draw: 200 | Torino Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Torino: -0.25, Torino_odd: 102, Udinese: 25, Udinese_odd: -122 | Torino -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -120, Under 2: 100 | Under 2 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Torino 27% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Torino at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Torino's home form, recent unbeaten streak, and historical edge in head-to-head matches, alongside slightly better defensive stats, the prediction favors Torino to win narrowly or the match to end in a draw. A low scoring game with tactical discipline is likely.
Predicted Score: 1-0
