Match Analysis: Tyler Denny vs Elvis Ahorgah – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-20
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Resorts World Arena, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Game Overview
Tyler Denny and Elvis Ahorgah meet in a super middleweight boxing match scheduled for 10 rounds. Denny, a southpaw with a professional record of 19-3-3 and modest knockout power (1 KO), brings extensive experience with 170 professional rounds, having debuted in 2015. Ahorgah, an orthodox fighter with a 13-3-0 record and a 92% knockout rate (12 KOs), is younger and known for his aggressive style and punching power. The fight is expected to feature a contrast of Denny's technical boxing and Ahorgah's power and will to fight, taking place at Birmingham's Resorts World Arena.
Key Factors to Consider
- Denny has been more active and experienced, having fought more rounds and recently beaten 4 of his last 5 opponents with a mix of decisions and one KO. He suffered a TKO loss in September 2024 to Hamzah Sheeraz but previously scored a TKO win against Felix Cash. Ahorgah is known for his aggressive style and heavy knockout power, despite less professional experience and a recent stoppage loss to British super middleweight champion Callum Simpson.
- No previous fights or direct head-to-head comparisons exist between Denny and Ahorgah. Their contrasting styles—Denny's technical approach versus Ahorgah's aggression and power—will be a significant storyline.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout. However, Denny has expressed some uncertainty about the agreed official weight for the fight, which could be a minor distraction.
- There has been some organizational confusion surrounding the fight card's weight agreements and bout rounds, reflecting promoter BOXXER's recent contract errors for other fighters on the same card. The fight is part of a high-profile event with multiple bouts broadcast on Sky Sports+, increasing exposure and pressure. The venue in Birmingham favors Denny, who is local and more experienced in major UK arenas.
- Denny is motivated to demonstrate his technical superiority and put on a dominant performance after a recent loss and some promotional confusion. Ahorgah aims to leverage his knockout power and aggressive style to upset a favored opponent and gain prominence by defeating a seasoned veteran.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Tyler Denny: -2500, Elvis Ahorgah: 1000 | Tyler Denny | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | Tyler Denny: -3.5 rounds, Elvis Ahorgah: +3.5 rounds | Tyler Denny by more than 3.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 rounds: 1.75, Under 7.5 rounds: 2 | Under 7.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tyler Denny -18% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tyler Denny at -18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tyler Denny is favored to win due to his superior technical skills, experience, and ring generalship. While Ahorgah's power and aggression pose a threat, Denny’s ability to control distance and pace should allow him to neutralize Ahorgah’s offense and secure a victory, likely by decision or late stoppage.
Predicted Score: Tyler Denny wins by unanimous decision or late technical knockout around round 8