Match Analysis: Bologna vs Inter Milan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-20
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Italy
Game Overview
The Serie A clash between Bologna and Inter Milan features Bologna sitting 5th with 57 points and a solid home record, while Inter Milan leads the league with 71 points showing strong form offensively and defensively. Recent matches between these sides have been competitive, including draws and narrow wins for both clubs, indicating a tightly contested fixture ahead.
Key Factors to Consider
- Inter Milan has a superior overall record with 21 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses, boasting +41 goal difference. Bologna has 15 wins, 12 draws, and 5 losses with +14 goal difference. Inter’s recent form includes significant wins domestically and in Europe. Bologna shows strong home form with recent wins against mid-table teams.
- Inter Milan has dominated the recent history with Bologna at home: out of the last 25 matches, Inter won 16, Bologna 5, and 4 draws, with a 41-23 goal advantage favoring Inter. In their last five encounters, results have been closely contested with draws and narrow wins for both sides.
- Key absences for Inter include M. Taremi, P. Zieliński, and V. Carboni. Bologna is missing Davide Calabria. These absences, especially in Inter’s midfield and attack, could slightly weaken their squad depth and tactical options.
- No significant external factors like weather or unusual travel constraints reported. Bologna has the home advantage at Renato Dall'Ara stadium.
- Inter Milan is highly motivated to maintain their top-of-the-table lead and secure Champions League qualification. Bologna is pushing for a top-five finish and European football, adding competitive urgency to their play.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bologna: 230, Inter Milan: 130, Draw: 220 | Inter Milan win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Bologna: 25 -115, Inter Milan: -0.25 -105 | Inter Milan -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 2.25 -112, Under: 2.25 -108 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Inter Milan 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Inter Milan at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the superior league position, recent form, and head-to-head dominance, Inter Milan is favored to win. However, Bologna’s home resilience and motivation to secure European football suggest a closely fought match likely ending in a narrow Inter victory or a draw.
Predicted Score: Bologna 1 – 2 Inter Milan