Match Analysis: Empoli vs Venezia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-20
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Carlo Castellani, Empoli, Italy
Game Overview
Empoli hosts Venezia in a crucial Serie A relegation battle. Both teams sit near the bottom of the table with 24 points each, positioned 18th and 19th respectively. Recent form has been poor for Empoli with three losses in their last six league games and a significant struggle to score at home, failing to score in their last four home league matches. Venezia, despite having difficulties away with nine losses in sixteen away games, have remained unbeaten in six of their last seven Serie A matches and consistently drawn at half-time and full-time in away games. Historically, the matchup has produced tight games with several draws. Given their similar records and defensive tendencies, a low-scoring draw is predicted.
Key Factors to Consider
- Empoli has scored an average of just 0.33 goals per home match recently and has struggled to convert chances. Venezia has been more consistent defensively, remaining unbeaten in six of their last seven games but scoring only 0.78 goals on average per match. Both teams have weak goal-scoring records and poor league positions, emphasizing the high stakes of this encounter.
- In the last six meetings across all competitions, Empoli and Venezia have drawn three times, reflecting a balanced rivalry with low margins for victory. Their most recent league encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating closely matched squads.
- Empoli faces several absences including M. Silvestri, Y. Maleh, S. Żurkowski, T. Anjorin, A. Ismajli, P. Pellegri, and N. Haas, which could weaken their offensive and defensive options. Venezia is missing A. Duncan, F. Stanković, and M. Svoboda, but the impact appears less severe compared to Empoli.
- The match is played at Empoli’s home ground, Carlo Castellani, which could provide slight advantage despite their scoring struggles. Weather and pitch conditions have not been reported but typical April conditions in Italy should be favorable for play.
- With both teams precariously close to the relegation zone and tied on points, motivation is high. Venezia’s recent unbeaten streak could boost their confidence, while Empoli needs a positive result to escape relegation danger. This battle of survival is expected to be cagey with neither side wanting to risk heavy defeat.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Empoli: 1.25, Venezia: 2.5, Draw: 2.15 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Empoli -0.25: -110, Venezia +25: -110 | Empoli -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 1.02, Under 2.25: 1.22 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Empoli 39% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Empoli at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A tightly contested match that will likely end in a draw due to both teams' struggles in attack and emphasis on avoiding defeat at this crucial stage of the season.
Predicted Score: 1-1
