Match Analysis: Winnipeg Jets vs St Louis Blues – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-19
- Time: 10:10 PM UTC
- Location: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, MB
Game Overview
The NHL playoff opening game between the Winnipeg Jets and the St. Louis Blues is a critical first-round matchup. The Jets secured the Presidents' Trophy this season with a franchise-record 116 points and have shown strong form, especially at home. The Blues clinched the final wild-card spot and have momentum from recently ending a 12-game winning streak with a decisive 3-1 loss to the Jets earlier this month. Both teams have playoff experience and key players such as Kyle Connor for the Jets and Robert Thomas for the Blues are expected to play pivotal roles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Winnipeg Jets have a stronger regular season performance, ranking 1st in the Central division with 116 points and a well-balanced offense and defense, averaging 3.4 goals per game while allowing 2.3. St. Louis Blues hold 5th in the same division with 93 points, scoring 3.0 goals per game but with a slightly weaker defense allowing 2.8 goals per game. Recent form favors Winnipeg with wins in their last two games while the Blues showed mixed results but a recent big win against Utah indicates resilience.
- Winnipeg Jets dominated the season series 3-1-0 including a 3-1 win that ended the Blues' 12-game winning streak. Their ability to control the Blues in home games and capitalize on scoring chances has been a key factor. Previously, in playoffs, Blues defeated Jets in 2019 in six games en route to their Stanley Cup win, which adds rivalry and experience context.
- St. Louis Blues' key player Robert Thomas is questionable due to a lower body injury sustained in the last game but Oskar Sundqvist is healthy and contributed well. Winnipeg Jets expect Josh Morrissey back from rest and starting goalie Connor Hellebuyck is confirmed, increasing their defensive stability.
- The game being played at Winnipeg’s Canada Life Centre gives the Jets a home-ice advantage, supported by their strong home performance throughout the season. The Jets also carry the pressure of ending consecutive first-round playoff exits, increasing their motivation. The Blues, returning to playoffs for the first time since 2022, are looking to build on their previous playoff success.
- Winnipeg Jets are highly motivated to leverage their record-setting season and break their early playoff exit streak. The Blues are motivated to prove themselves as a playoff contender after qualifying as a wild-card and have the psychological edge of being a past champion who overcame the Jets in playoffs before.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | St Louis Blues: 145, Winnipeg Jets: -175 | Winnipeg Jets | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | St Louis Blues +1.5: -185, Winnipeg Jets -1.5: 154 | Winnipeg Jets -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 5.5: 114, Under 5.5: -135 | Under 5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Winnipeg Jets -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 5.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Winnipeg Jets are likely to win this first game at home, leveraging better season form, home ice, and roster health. Expect a competitive game but Jets' defensive structure and balanced offense should prevail, potentially controlling the pace and outcome.
Predicted Score: Winnipeg Jets 3 – St Louis Blues 1