Match Analysis: Corinthians vs Sport Recife – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-19
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Neo Química Arena, São Paulo, São Paulo
Game Overview
Corinthians hosts Sport Recife in the Brasileirão Serie A. Corinthians is currently 12th in the league with 4 points, while Sport Recife is last with 1 point. Both teams lost their last Serie A matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Corinthians recently lost to Fluminense 2-0 at home, while Sport Recife lost to RB Bragantino 1-0. Corinthians generally performs better at home and averages 2 goals per match there.
- In their last five meetings, Corinthians won three times and Sport Recife won twice. Historically, Corinthians leads at home with higher chances of winning when leading 1-0.
- Corinthians has Igor Coronado, R. Garro, and Hugo Souza sidelined, while Sport Recife is missing several players including Pablo, Igor Cariús, and Dalbert.
- Both teams might face pressure to win, but Corinthians' stronger home record gives them an advantage.
- Corinthians will be more motivated to win due to their need to climb the league table.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians: -195, Sport Recife: 550, Draw: 320 | Corinthians Win | High |
Spread | Corinthians: -1 -115, Sport Recife: 1 -105 | Corinthians Cover | Medium-High |
Over/under | Over 2.5: 102, Under 2.5: -122 | Under 2.5 | Medium |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Corinthians is expected to win due to their home advantage and stronger recent form compared to Sport Recife.
Predicted Score: Corinthians 2, Sport Recife 0