Match Analysis: Corinthians vs Fluminense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-16
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Neo Química Arena
Game Overview
The upcoming match between Corinthians and Fluminense in the Brazilian Serie A pits two teams with recent mixed results. Corinthians have shown a slightly better record recently, but Fluminense has the potential for a strong comeback.
Key Factors to Consider
- Corinthians have had 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 matches, while Fluminense has 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Both teams have shown inconsistency.
- In their head-to-head matches, Corinthians have historically had an edge with 44 wins, compared to Fluminense's 17. However, recent matches have been unpredictable.
- Corinthians have R. Garro sidelined, while Fluminense is missing Otávio, Marcelo Pitaluga, Riquelme, G. Fuentes, Renato Augusto, Ganso, and Isaque, significantly impacting their lineup.
- The high stakes of the Serie A and the significant home advantage for Corinthians could influence the match's dynamics.
- Both teams are motivated to climb the league table, but Corinthians' home field advantage might provide an additional boost.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -110 for Corinthians, 320 for Fluminense, 245 for Draw | Corinthians Win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | -0.5 -108 for Corinthians, 50 -112 for Fluminense | Corinthians Cover | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over_under | Over 2.25 100, Under 2.25 -120 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Corinthians at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Corinthians have a slight edge due to home field advantage and recent performance, but Fluminense can pull off a surprise if they manage their injuries well.
Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of Corinthians