Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-16
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: José Maria de Campos Maia Municipal Stadium, Mirassol, BRA
Game Overview
This match between Mirassol and Grêmio in the Brazil Campeonato presents a challenging scenario. Mirassol has struggled recently with losses and draws, while Grêmio, though inconsistent, has shown glimpses of strong performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio has shown more consistency in achieving wins lately, but Mirassol is playing at home which can be an advantage. Mirassol's recent form has been unimpressive, whereas Grêmio has had positive results in some of their last matches.
- Historically, Grêmio has the upper hand in head-to-head encounters, but Mirassol's home advantage could level the field.
- Mirassol has listed several players as injured, including Luiz Otávio and Zé Vitor. Grêmio also has players sidelined, such as Gabriel Mec and Mayk.
- The match being played on a weekday evening could affect team performances, but both teams should be well-rested. Weather conditions might be a minimal factor unless extreme.
- Grêmio's drive to climb the league table could motivate them more compared to Mirassol, who are focused on improving their current standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Grêmio: 200, Mirassol: 150, Draw: 220 | Grêmio Win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Spread | Grêmio: 0 +111, Mirassol: 0 -132 | Grêmio Cover | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over_under | Over 2.25: 105, Under 2.25: -125 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Grêmio 65% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Grêmio at 65% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
I predict Grêmio might edge this one due to their recent form and historical dominance. However, Mirassol's home advantage could lead to a tight contest.
Predicted Score: Mirassol 0 – 1 Grêmio